A Dose of ‘Hopium’ for Bitcoin Bulls From 1970s

The question of whether inflation has peaked is passe for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

There has been a slowdown in the inflation rate in the U.S. and other parts of the world since the third quarter of 2022. In response, the Federal Reserve (Fed), the world’s most powerful central bank, has slowed liquidity tightening that pushed cryptocurrencies and stocks into a bear market last year.

The question now is whether the turnaround is enough to lift risk assets.

The answer is yes, according to data that show the S&P 500, Wall Street’s equity index and a benchmark for risk assets worldwide, tends to bottom out and rally when the consumer price index (CPI) peaks. Bitcoin has historically moved more or less in line with U.S. stocks.

QCP expects large rallies to be met with strong selling pressure and prefers writing or selling bitcoin call options or bullish bets at a $20,000 strike price.

Bitcoin changed hands at $16,850 at press time.

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